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Market-Realised Gradient Oscillators
raonbit

2021.11.13 08:04:41

140일- Market-Realised Gradient Oscillators

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raonbit

2021.11.13 08:05:06

The Market-Realised Gradient Oscillator is a metric that models market momentum relative to capital inflows. It is designed based the following principles:

The momentum of a market can be considered by assessing the rate of change of price, or the verticality over some period. The simplest example is a parabolic advance, whereby the rate of price appreciation increases in magnitude as a result of market momentum.

The Realised Price reflects the aggregate price at which each coin in the supply last moved. Steeper increases in the Realised Price indicates a true and organic capital inflow is occurring, as every coin that is spent on-chain and sold, has a buyer with fresh capital. The steepness of this curve therefore represents a rational baseline for sustainable value growth.

The Delta Gradient is calculated as the difference between the gradient of the spot Price, and the gradient of the Realised Price. This metric therefore measures the relative change in momentum between speculative value, and true organic capital inflows.

Statistical normalisation is then applied to bring historical values, and log-scale price changes into a consistent scale.

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raonbit

2021.11.13 08:05:40

https://studio.glassnode.com/workbench/140-day-market-realised-gradient

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raonbit

2021.11.13 08:04:47

Application
This set of metrics can be used for a number of powerful applications, primarily in identifying continuations, and reversals in the prevailing market trend:

When the Delta Gradient is positive, it indicates an expected uptrend is in play which can be expected to last a similar length of time to the period of the oscillator considered (i.e. 28-day Delta Gradient, suggests a 1-2month uptrend is in play).

When the Delta Gradient is negative, it signals the converse, that a downtrend is in play with similar expected duration.

Increasing successive peaks in the Delta Gradient indicates that each rally has reached greater verticality, and suggests momentum continuation to the upside (e.g. see 2016-17 bull). Vice-versa is applicable for corrections and downtrends.

Decreasing successive peaks in the Delta Gradient, particularly when price is making corresponding higher highs, indicates declining momentum with each rally. This can be interpreted as a bearish divergence and a potential trend reversal signal (e.g. see 2021 Q1-Q2 bull).

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